What Is the Future Milk Production Report?
The Future Milk Production report appears on the Scientific screen and represents a hypothetical estimate of how a calf ration may influence first-lactation milk production.
The underlying concept is simple: calves that grow faster before weaning—and consume more dry feed at weaning—tend to produce more milk in their first lactation. NASCalf uses this concept to estimate the potential future value of a feeding program.
How Future Milk Value Is Calculated
Once the potential increase in first-lactation milk is estimated, NASCalf assigns a financial value by multiplying that increase by a user-defined milk price. This results in a future milk value, which reflects the relative economic impact of different nutritional programs.
Scientific Basis: Calf Starter Intake
The first component of the calculation comes from research at Penn State University.
In 2011, Heinrichs and Heinrichs reported that first-lactation milk production increased by 287 kilograms for every additional kilogram of calf starter consumed at weaning. NASCalf calculates calf starter dry matter intake at weaning and multiplies that value by 287 to estimate the contribution from starter intake.
Scientific Basis: Pre-Weaning Growth Rate
The second component is based on work by Gelsinger and colleagues, published in 2016. Their study showed that for every 100 grams of pre-weaning average daily gain above 500 grams per day, first-lactation milk production increased by approximately 130 kilograms.
Below an average daily gain of 0.5 kilograms per day, no additional milk production was observed. NASCalf calculates average daily gain at weaning, compares it to the 500-gram threshold, and estimates added milk accordingly. If growth is below this level, the contribution is set to zero.
Combining the Estimates
The estimates from starter intake and pre-weaning growth are then averaged to generate a single value representing the expected contribution to first-lactation milk production—referred to here as future milk.
Interpreting Future Milk Results
Future milk should be interpreted with caution. It is a hypothetical metric, designed to compare different simulations within NASCalf. It does not guarantee changes in actual milk production after calving.
Instead, it provides a relative measure of how effectively different nutritional strategies promote pre-weaning growth and intake—and their potential long-term implications for herd productivity.
